Factor allocation,economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China

On the basis of development accounting techniques and a factor misallocation framework, we use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013 to assess how factor allocation affects economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China. In particular, we decompose economic growth into three parts, namely sector productivity (SP ), factor market efficiency (FME ) and factor endowment (FE ). We then conduct counterfactual analyses to investigate the short and long‐run roles of factor allocation in the income distribution across provinces. The results show that SP , FME and FE can explain 23%, 8.5% and 68.5% of economic growth, while labour, capital and energy reallocation account for aggregate productivity growth of about 47%, −4.8% and −0.1%. Furthermore, when the factors are efficiently allocated, transferring labour (capital, energy) from agriculture (service, industry) to the other sectors will increase the income per capita by 29.5% and 42.5% in the short and long term. Meanwhile, efficient factor allocation accounts for 32% and 29.7% of aggregate productivity and reduces the income variation across provinces by 25.5% and 23% in the short and long run, respectively.     

普惠金融与县域资金外流：减贫还是致贫*——基于中国592个国家级贫困县的研究

本文利用全国592个国家级贫困县的数据，采用空间计量模型实证分析了普惠金融对县域资金外流的影响，并验证了贫困县资金外流是否会产生致贫效应。本文研究发现：如果普惠金融只注重解决贫困地区对金融机构的接触性排斥，会进一步加剧资金外流，对减贫产生负向影响，即存在显著的致贫效应。这种致贫效应具有明显的空间外溢性，邻近县域的贫困状况在很大程度上会彼此“传染”，并具有空间衰减特征的地理边界。因而需要客观认识普惠金融的本质，有针对性地选择恰当有效的实施载体，解决好对信贷产品等关键金融服务的使用性排斥问题。     

Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型

基于颠覆性创新、创新扩散、创新模糊前端等相关理论，从全流程角度创新性地构建了颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型，包括颠覆性创意产生、颠覆性创新产品开发、侵蚀非主流市场、占据主流市场4个阶段，各阶段之间相互关联、循环往复，并受到技术、市场、政策、竞争等外部环境因素影响。选取液晶电视机和山寨手机作为高端和低端两个颠覆性创新典型案例，通过对其进行验证性分析，构建具体的高端与低端颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型。     

Stuck in the Middle: Off-Farm Employment and Caregiving Among Middle-Aged Rural Chinese

ABSTRACT

Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011–12 baseline data, this contribution explores to what extent taking care of grandchildren and frail parents influences rural middle-aged Chinese adults’ off-farm employment. The findings show that, conditional on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, taking care of grandchildren has a negative effect on rural middle-aged men's and women's off-farm job participation and hours worked. Caregiving for parents does not have the same negative effects on off-farm employment and hours worked. Furthermore, the study finds that annual earnings are also negatively affected by caregiving responsibilities, especially for women and men taking care of grandchildren.     

Institutions and the financial development–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a sample splitting approach that does not impose an exogenous quadratic term, we examine the effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa by allowing the link to be mediated by the level of institutions. Our findings reveal a disproportionate growth-enhancing effect of finance, given countries’ distinct level of institutional quality. More specifically, when the International Country Risk Guide-based measure of institutions is used as the threshold variable, below the optimal level of institutional quality, financial development does not significantly promote economic growth. For countries with institutional quality above the threshold, higher finance is associated with growth. However, when institutions are measured by World Governance Indicators proxy, we find a significant effect of financial development, irrespective of whether a country is below or above the threshold. Interestingly, the growth-enhancing effect of finance is greater for low-institution countries relative to high-institution countries. Thus, through its ability to provide some crucial roles, the well-developed financial sector may also perform the function of sound institutions in influencing economic growth.     

江苏经济高质量发展本质、态势与对策

以科技革命和产业变革为主要特征的新工业革命方兴未艾,与朱格拉周期形成叠加,与经济高质量发展形成难得的历史交汇。当前江苏站到了新工业革命与经济高质量发展融合的全新起点,开启了经济增长新周期,致力于改善经济运行质量,提高经济效益。研究表明,新工业革命与经济高质量发展呈现相互依存、相互融合、协调发展的总趋势。文章通过对江苏经济高质量发展态势分析,把握新时代江苏的新方位、新坐标,推动新旧动能转换,实现江苏经济增长由"L型"向"V型"转变,彰显经济高质量发展的"江苏作为",为其他区域经济发展提供现实观照。     

Economic Development and South Africa: 25 Years Analysis (1994 to 2019)

Economic Development highlights the growth and progression of every nation towards prosperity, and South Africa is not an exception to this phenomenon. Present article reviews economic progression in South Africa for last 25 years of time by applying systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis (1,241 articles) on Scopus extracted database (1994 to 2019; until 06 June). Inferences evidence significant work contributed by top universities, authors, funding sources, journals and citation statistics. Noticeably, implementation of a concept solely will not fetch real situation; however, a systematic review extends good to excellent understanding of the considered research agenda. Findings reveal the contradictory inter-connectivity of Cluster 1 Economic Inequality and Poverty, Cluster 2 Developing Country and Corruption and Cluster 6 Economic Development and Economic Policy. It is very important to understand that if a nation is facing economic inequality, corruption, and poverty; how it can achieve the status of economically developed nation. Identification of Cluster 3 Industrialization and Industry 4.0, Cluster 4 Unemployment and Entrepreneurship Education and Cluster 5 Sustainable Development and Economic Growth signifies scope of improvement. Conclusively, the researcher has proposed a conceptual model to address above stated concerns.     

Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

The effect of diplomatic representation on trade: A panel data analysis

This study addresses current gaps in the empirical literature regarding the effect of diplomatic representation on trade using a panel data set for 100 countries with 5‐year interval data from 1985 to 2005 and four‐digit level industry data. The results indicate that the effect of diplomatic representation on exports in differentiated goods is positive and significant and larger than on exports in homogeneous goods on average, but not statistically different from it. Furthermore, diplomatic representation only increases trade along the extensive margin and not along the intensive margin. The results indicate that diplomatic representation is effective in performing its function as a network search intermediary and that it is a useful policy tool to alleviate market failure.